The 2025 New Business Market

Another year gone, and the chance to take the temperature of the new business landscape and what that might mean for the year ahead.

The recovery in 2024 appears to have been short lived

The figures and sentiment from the market indicate that 2025 was a new business year of two distinct halves. By July, the total market was down -28% versus the same period in 2024, with double-digit declines across every sector except social.

Full year figures for 2025 show a recovery (of sorts) vs the first half of the year, but overall, the market still finished down on 2024.

Data from www.aarnewbizmoves.co.uk.
Figures are only for pitches that have announced a result and excludes pitches not yet completed.
Digital reviews are no longer recorded separately and allocated to another relevant category depending on scope.

A 10% drop in the total market isn’t what most agencies were hoping for – but at least it’s still an improvement on where things stood in 2023.

Advertising & Integrated

While reported media spend is no longer a perfect proxy for account size, it remains one of the more useful indicators we have. On that basis, 2025 actually saw more scale opportunities than 2024 (12 compared to five).

Those larger opportunities came primarily from financial services (five), followed by retail (two), with one each from telecoms, gambling, local government, and automotive. Interestingly, and perhaps encouragingly, no single agency group dominated these wins.

*Stood down by TfL mid-way through the review 

So what can we take from this?

Two things stand out. First, on their day, any agency can win – there was no single dominant winner. Second, most agencies simply don’t have the resource to pitch continuously or to run multiple scale opportunities at the same time.

That said, scale isn’t everything. Smaller opportunities can be just as valuable – whether because they offer the chance to do genuinely great work, get onto a roster for the first time, or work with standout marketers.

CRM/CX

We don’t believe the headline drop in reported CRM/CX reviews tells the full story.

There are three important factors at play:

1. Creative scopes increasingly span multiple parts of the customer journey – upper and lower funnel, brand and performance, acquisition and retention. These are often reported as integrated opportunities rather than standalone CRM/CX
2. Agencies offering multiple capabilities are growing their scopes organically. That kind of growth is harder to track and tends not to be reported in the trade press in the same way as competitive wins
3. The continued rise of in‑house lower‑funnel capability has reduced the need for external agency pitches in this space

So, it’s not that CRM/CX has become less important, but the way marketers source this expertise has evolved from the traditional path of an open market pitch.

Media

Media continues to be the most clearly segmented market.

At one end are the large international or global businesses, where reviews are typically contested by the “big five”, sometimes with a challenger in the mix.

At the other end are domestic opportunities, where independent agencies continue to sharpen their proposition – positioning themselves as more committed, more transparent, and fully focused on client success rather than shareholder return.

As ever, if you work in media, you’re unlikely to feel any real slowdown. A 7% drop in activity doesn’t translate into spare capacity – it just means the pressure shifts elsewhere.

Social

With growth of +56% in pitches, social remains the standout performer.

Trade press coverage suggests independents are particularly active here, though it’s likely that networks are also winning social work organically in much the same way as CRM/CX.

While growth is beginning to flatten, there’s still plenty of heat in this space. If you haven’t yet properly ramped up your social offer, there’s probably still time to benefit from what remains of this growth curve.

Growth in the % of competitive pitches 

Data from www.aarnewbizmoves.co.uk.

There’s been a clear shift back towards open, competitive pitching. Eight out of ten pitches in 2025 were fought in the open market, with a corresponding drop in appointments made without a pitch.

Our read of this is that businesses are once again placing more emphasis on what an agency can do for them, rather than relying on reputation or work done elsewhere.

Most active new business sectors

The usual suspects remain dominant – largely reflecting how many active brands sit within these sectors.

Are we to read anything in the replacement of non-alcoholic drinks by alcoholic drinks brands reviewing their agency arrangements?

What of 2026?

Rather than putting hard numbers against what 2026 might bring, I’ll leave you with three things I feel fairly confident about:

• Ghosting won’t disappear – and may get worse – though never in an AAR-supported review
• Competition will remain intense. Winning is addictive, and pitch teams will keep chasing that high.
• You and your people will feel better walking away from opportunities that don’t feel right. Unless you’re fully committed, you won’t win – and you’ll burn valuable energy in the process.

This year, we wish you every success in the new business opportunities you pursue, and the confidence to walk away from those that aren’t right for your agency.