When uncertainty becomes the only certainty

I still remember the first time I saw an agency win a pitch.

I’d been in two days of pitches with a client, and as the final meeting came to an end, the energy in the room had shifted. I saw the glances amongst the client team – the (not-so-subtle) grins, the sense of ease, the mixture of excitement and relief that spells out one thing – “this agency is the one”. 

We said our thanks and goodbyes and headed outside to look for a nearby pub for a wash-up, but before we’d even left the lobby the clients decided they didn’t need to discuss anything; that final agency was the one for them.

So, we turned right around. We got back in the lift and back up to the meeting room we’d just come out of and (met with looks of confusion and alarm from the agency team) asked if we could come back in and just ask a couple more follow-up questions.

We sat back down, at this point I’m avoiding eye contact with the agency CEO who is expecting  they’re about to be asked a horribly difficult question. But instead, the CMO told them then and there that they had won the business. It was the most incredible moment.

Flash forward to 2024, almost ten years later, and it hasn’t happened since.

There are plenty of reasons why that might be a good thing. I always advise marketing teams to sleep on any big decision, and my procurement clients need to undertake the necessary commercial governance before entering detailed negotiations.

But I can’t help feeling like the balance might have tipped the other way and this year I’ve had more questions than any other asking “when did it all get so tough?”. What I think everyone means is why has everything become so uncertain?

On the face of it, everyone has spoken of new business pipelines that seem healthy, but opportunities have stayed on there for three to six months, not the one or two weeks they used to. 

Then opportunities get signed off, planning begins and then plans have changed, budgets have shifted, and processes have gone on pause. 

Marketing Directors don’t have the autonomy they used to, and they are facing more C-suite or Board-level involvement than ever before. 

In response to reduced budgets, and the increased need for integration, a lot of domestic UK opportunities have been subsumed into larger consolidated global tenders. 

The impact this has had on our industry has been huge, and the feeling of uncertainty from almost all agency folk I speak to is very real.

But with this comes huge opportunity and, for us at AAR in the last 12 months, this has caused us to make huge shifts in the type of consultancy work we’re doing with clients in our agency selection space. 

Where the industry has been obsessed with the pitch “process”, I honestly believe the value we deliver clients (both brands and agencies) is our advice and our insight. 

For us, this has meant a greater focus on:

• Market mapping to help clients understand the ever-evolving agency marketplace.
• Agreeing the right operating model upfront and not using the pitch to decide – I find this is particularly common when the client hasn’t thought about where in the agency ecosystem a capability such as social, sponsorship or SEO should sit.
• Support to build the business case for increased cost (and value) that a new agency partner can sometimes bring (read my colleague Hannah Astill’s thoughts in Pulse on this!).
• Guidance on what the right commercial model should be, including innovation we are seeing in this space (but at the very minimum, clarity on the scope of work and the budgets).

Before we even think about starting a selection process and engaging with agencies, there is so much support CMOs need to make sure they are armed with all the necessary market knowledge and insight they need to avoid that horrible feeling of uncertainty. 

But despite all that uncertainty, one thing of which I am certain is that there has never been a greater need for genuine informed and impartial advice to support marketers as they navigate the agency landscape. As we move into 2025, for all of us (agencies and AAR), this is what we will continue to deliver.